Committed near-future retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers inferred by transient model calibration

A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion – termed "transient calibration" – produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km³ a⁻¹ over this period, as well as loss of 33 km² a⁻¹ grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters

Brief Communication: Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ

We have extended the record of flow speed on Jakobshavn Isbræ through the summer of 2013. These new data reveal large seasonal speedups, 30 to 50% greater than previous summers. At a point a few kilometres inland from the terminus, the mean annual speed for 2012 is nearly three times as great as that in the mid-1990s, while the peak summer speeds are more than a factor of four greater. These speeds were achieved as the glacier terminus appears to have retreated to the bottom of an over-deepened basin with a depth of ~ 1300 m below sea level. The terminus is likely to reach the deepest section of the trough within a few decades, after which it could rapidly retreat to the shallower regions ~ 50 km farther upstream, potentially by the end of this century

Ice velocity of Jakobshavn Isbræ, Petermann Glacier, Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, and Zachariæ Isstrøm, 2015–2017, from Sentinel 1-a/b SAR imagery

Systematically monitoring Greenland's outlet glaciers is central to understanding the timescales over which their flow and sea level contributions evolve. In this study we use data from the new Sentinel-1a/b satellite constellation to generate 187 velocity maps, covering four key outlet glaciers in Greenland: Jakobshavn Isbræ, Petermann Glacier, Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, and Zachariæ Isstrøm. These data provide a new high temporal resolution record (6-day averaged solutions) of each glacier's evolution since 2014, and resolve recent seasonal speedup periods and inter-annual changes in Greenland outlet glacier speed with an estimated certainty of 10 %. We find that since 2012, Jakobshavn Isbræ has been decelerating, and now flows approximately 1250 m yr−1 (10 %), slower than 5 years previously, thus reversing an increasing trend in ice velocity that has persisted during the last decade. Despite this, we show that seasonal variability in ice velocity remains significant: up to 750 m yr−1 (14 %) at a distance of 12 km inland of the terminus. We also use our new dataset to estimate the duration of speedup periods (80–95 days) and to demonstrate a strong relationship between ice front position and ice flow at Jakobshavn Isbræ, with increases in speed of  ∼  1800 m yr−1 in response to 1 km of retreat. Elsewhere, we record significant seasonal changes in flow of up to 25 % (2015) and 18 % (2016) at Petermann Glacier and Zachariæ Isstrøm, respectively. This study provides a first demonstration of the capacity of a new era of operational radar satellites to provide frequent and timely monitoring of ice sheet flow, and to better resolve the timescales over which glacier dynamics evolve

Greenland Ice Mapping Project: ice flow velocity variation at sub-monthly to decadal timescales

We describe several new ice velocity maps produced by the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) using Landsat 8 and Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B data. We then focus on several sites where we analyse these data in conjunction with earlier data from this project, which extend back to the year 2000. At Jakobshavn Isbræ and Køge Bugt, we find good agreement when comparing results from different sensors. In a change from recent behaviour, Jakobshavn Isbræ began slowing substantially in 2017, with a midsummer peak that was even slower than some previous winter minima. Over the last decade, we identify two major slowdown events at Køge Bugt that coincide with short-term advances of the terminus. We also examined populations of glaciers in north-west and south-west Greenland to produce a record of speed-up since 2000. Collectively these glaciers continue to speed up, but there are regional differences in the timing of periods of peak speed-up. In addition, we computed trends in winter flow speed for much of the south-west margin of the ice sheet and find little in the way of statistically significant changes over the period covered by our data. Finally, although the consistency of the data is generally good over time and across sensors, our analysis indicates that substantial differences can arise in regions with high strain rates (e.g. shear margins) where sensor resolution can become a factor. For applications such as constraining model inversions, users should factor in the impact that the data's resolution has on their results.</p

Spatiotemporal interpolation of elevation changes derived from satellite altimetry for Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland

Estimation of ice sheet mass balance from satellite altimetry requires interpolation of point-scale elevation change (dHdt) data over the area of interest. The largest dHdt values occur over narrow, fast-flowing outlet glaciers, where data coverage of current satellite altimetry is poorest. In those areas, straightforward interpolation of data is unlikely to reflect the true patterns of dHdt. Here, four interpolation methods are compared and evaluated over Jakobshavn Isbr, an outlet glacier for which widespread airborne validation data are available from NASAs Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM). The four methods are ordinary kriging (OK), kriging with external drift (KED), where the spatial pattern of surface velocity is used as a proxy for that of dHdt, and their spatiotemporal equivalents (ST-OK and ST-KED)

Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat

Recently observed large-scale disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves has moved their fronts closer towards grounded ice. In response, ice-sheet discharge into the ocean has accelerated, contributing to global sea-level rise and emphasizing the importance of calving-front dynamics. The position of the ice front strongly influences the stress field within the entire sheet-shelf-system and thereby the mass flow across the grounding line. While theories for an advance of the ice-front are readily available, no general rule exists for its retreat, making it difficult to incorporate the retreat in predictive models. Here we extract the first-order large-scale kinematic contribution to calving which is consistent with large-scale observation. We emphasize that the proposed equation does not constitute a comprehensive calving law but represents the first-order kinematic contribution which can and should be complemented by higher order contributions as well as the influence of potentially heterogeneous material properties of the ice. When applied as a calving law, the equation naturally incorporates the stabilizing effect of pinning points and inhibits ice shelf growth outside of embayments. It depends only on local ice properties which are, however, determined by the full topography of the ice shelf. In numerical simulations the parameterization reproduces multiple stable fronts as observed for the Larsen A and B Ice Shelves including abrupt transitions between them which may be caused by localized ice weaknesses. We also find multiple stable states of the Ross Ice Shelf at the gateway of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with back stresses onto the sheet reduced by up to 90 % compared to the present state